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A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."