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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are released from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from American administration follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.